I just wanted to let everyone who lives in the NE or knows someone who does that we might get a storm like around Friday.

It could be a Tropical Storm, a Hurricane (Category 1 and 2, basically Irene/Sandy level) or a Major Hurricane (Category 3 - 5).

 

The models are saying it could be a Category 1 or 4 or something. Its crazy, I think it might be a Category 1 if anything. It just formed so who knows what could possibly happen so people on the east coast in general should check it out to see if they'll get it. It will probably be named Tropical Storm/Hurricane Joaquin (this name sounds so ratchet but i love it). 

 

Here is the current forecast:

(NOTE: Always updates by itself, so whatever you see here, is the current update)

 

 

Here are some model runs people found:

 

 

Category 1:

 

 

 

Category 4:

 

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 201510 yr by Shana09

One of the two best models for predicting hurricanes just made a change from North Carolina to damn NYC

Oh this TP went from a joke to some deep shit NYC and NJ will have to deal with. That explains why NJ went into a state of emergency so fast.

Oh this TP went from a joke to some deep shit NYC and NJ will have to deal with. That explains why NJ went into a state of emergency so fast.

 

 

It shifted from that now to out to sea. Not sure whats going on but I feel the forecast is back to jumping around all over the place. 50/50 for inland or out.

UPDATE 8: Hurricane Joaquin is now a Category 4. It went under extremely quick intensification and will continue to do so, possibly till Cat 5. Models are now going east out to sea but there are still models on the coast. Its still a very uncertain forecast. Rain and flooding will still be a big issue regardless.

NOTE: Its listed as "Cat 3" because its winds are 130 MPH. Its 1 MPH away from a Cat 4 so its noticed as one.

These are the current models of Joaquin. Note how they have no (firetrucking) clue whats going on.

Edited October 1, 201510 yr by Shana09

This thing is force to be reckoned with.  Stay safe guys.

This thing is force to be reckoned with.  Stay safe guys.

 

Really it is. It looks out to sea which is a good thing but still, its not even confident that it will happen.

It shifted from that now to out to sea. Not sure whats going on but I feel the forecast is back to jumping around all over the place. 50/50 for inland or out.

 

These are the current models of Joaquin. Note how they have no (firetrucking) clue whats going on.

 

I figured as much ever since last weekend.

 

What caught me off was how the storm got worse.

Edited October 1, 201510 yr by OmegaForte

I figured as much ever since last weekend.

 

What caught me off was how the storm got worse.

 

I knew it was going to get worse and that the forecasts were not pushing for it at all. It went from Tropical Storm to Category 4 in a day. Its crazy, and I'm expecting it to reach Cat 5 maybe, but its a little eh since I'm more focused on whether or not its gonna hit the US at all or not. Models are all over the place but the two best ones are going out to sea. Its just so weird if they can change that instantly whats to say they wont switch up again? We can't tell what happens till it makes the turn upwards, which its not doing.

That's the thing about the weather.  No matter how precise our predictions are, you still have to be prepared for anything.

That's the thing about the weather.  No matter how precise our predictions are, you still have to be prepared for anything.

 

Mhmm, still the chances of it going out to sea is increasing. Gotta wait for the turn tho.  

Also another issue. Joaquin is continuing to go west even though the great models that are going east are saying it should turn. If it doesn't turn anytime soon, they are getting less and less accurate.

NOTE: Hurricane Joaquin is still undecided in terms of track. While models favor out to sea, Joaquin isn't following models. It never did. It wasn't supposed to get to a hurricane status, especially a major one. Its a Cat 4 onto a Cat 5. It was supposed to turn north west/north east. It keeps on heading south east. It wasn't supposed to be near the Bahamas. Its in the Bahamas.

 

The models weren't good this entire season actually. Multiple storms were meant to hit USA (especially Florida). However, they didn't, despite models saying they would until the last minute. Erika, that invest near Yucatan that hit Florida but not as a tropical system, Ida, Danny, etc.

 

So for all we know Joaquin could really hit USA without us even knowing. Its changing up but USA hit is still a possibility.

 

Just letting you know just in case you guys keep hearing "out-to-sea" because things can change very quickly. It did in the last two days.

Thanks for keeping us up to date helps a lot.

Thanks for keeping us up to date helps a lot.

 

No problem, I'm happy to help. Don't want anyone to be unprepared if this hurricane decides to continue defying everything and eventually land somewhere. It could start turning though any minute. Hopefully. 

UPDATE 9: Hurricane Joaquin is now expected to move out to sea.

EDIT: East coast apparently not done. GFS model hits west. Was originally going way east and now is more west. FFS make up your mind. Not its going super north, can hit any way. One of the two best models is now changing after almost all the models went east as an agreement. 

Edited October 2, 201510 yr by Shana09

UPDATE 10: Joaquin decreased to a Cat 3 with 125 MPH earlier but then out of nowhere increased back to a Cat 4 with even higher winds, 155 MPH. This makes it 2 MPH away from being an official Category 5 hurricane, ever since Hurricane Felix in 2007.
Its still expected to track out to sea but there are a few models showing a more eastward trend near the NE.

 

Edited October 3, 201510 yr by Shana09