Last year it was Hurricane Irene, now it's Hurricane Sandy Cheeks.

Sandy has a HUGE chance of dealing actual damage towards the Northeast, maybe not directly, but it will be close enough to throw huge gusts of wind here. Now it may not me a tropical storm once it reaches here, where it says here:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html

(In order to understand it, the bigger the circle it is the lesser confidence it has of where exactly it will be in that circle)

It has a chance of combining itself with a Nor'easter, which is a storm that is coming near here by a low trough (aka winter-rain stormy stuff. If it does do that, it will automatically become a lot more dangerous, become a hurricane and possibly a major one and impact the Northeast.

I am making this thread for the people living from North Carolina to New England, maybe even Canada.

Here are some sites where you can check out weather and most specifically, Hurricane stuff:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/

http://www.weather.com/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Ill copy and paste some stuff from these sites and other news articles about it. c:

Ill also keep this updated if anyone cares.

The chances of an extremely powerful storm affecting New Jersey early next week have increased considerably in the last 24 hours, according to the National Weather Service.
All eyes are fixed on now Hurricane Sandy, churning slowly northward in the southern Caribbean, which is expected to play a crucial role in the potential development of a powerful nor’easter that could begin affecting the Garden State as early as Sunday.
“The risk has gone up,” said Gary Szatkowski, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service’s Mount Holly office. “This is a dangerous situation.”
Szatkowski said the number of forecast models and instruments indicating the possibility for New Jersey to be affected by a major storm have increased significantly since Tuesday. Under the worst case scenario, Sandy could merge with a developing nor’easter, adding tropical moisture to an already powerful storm and pummeling New Jersey over a period of several days with hurricane-force winds, torrential rain and severe coastal and inland flooding.
Szatkowski cautioned that much is still uncertain and forecasts can change in the coming days, but the potential for such a storm needs to be taken seriously.
“This is a very dangerous storm wherever it winds up, the problem is we don’t know where exactly it’s going to end up,” he said. “The east coast has a pretty good shot at getting affected by this though, and that’s one of the reasons this needs to be taken very seriously.”
A number of factors are working against the Garden State as this situation develops, the weather service said.
First, the storm is expected to affect the region during a full moon, when the tides are highest, increasing the possibility of a major coastal flooding event. Second, the storm is forecast to move very slowly through the region, potentially affecting the state with high winds and flooding rains for several days. Lastly, unlike a hurricane, winds can extend very far from the center of a nor’easter, increasing the chances that the state could experience wind damage even if the storm develops further off the coast.
“There’s been some discussion about whether it’s going to be tropical or non-tropical by the time it gets up here,” he Szatkowski said. “But that’s really a labeling thing. Whether it’s a tropical system with hurricane-force winds or a nor’easter with hurricane-force winds, I’m not sure it matters much.”
In response to the threat, New Jersey’s emergency management officials have started to warn residents about the potential for a major storm.
“This storm has the potential to affect the east coast from Florida all the way to New York within the next week,” Monmouth County Sheriff Shaun Golden said. “I urge residents to prepare, plan and stay informed about the coming hurricane.”

Source: http://www.nj.com/weather-guy/index.ssf/2012/10/chances_of_nj_being_affected_b.html

Hurricane Sandy hit the southeastern tip of Jamaica near 3:20 pm EDT this afternoon, as a Category 1 hurricane with 80 mph winds and a 973 mb pressure. According to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks website, Sandy is the thirteenth hurricane to make a direct hit on the island, and the first since Hurricane Gilbert of 1988. Kingston, Jamaica recorded sustained winds of 44 mph and a pressure of 972 mb in the west eyewall of Sandy at 4 pm EDT. The eastern tip of Jamaica will see the strongest winds of the right-front quadrant and the heaviest damage, though. A distorted eye is apparent on visible satellite loops, but Sandy is showing only minor disruption to its inner core structure as a result of hitting Jamaica. According to the Jamaica Observer, "Alligator Pond [in St Elizabeth] was inundated with the high waves that came ashore. We are now getting reports of impacts out in St. Catherine, Portland and St. Thomas as the ground becomes saturated. We are now seeing where light poles are toppling and landslides being reported and roadway being flooded to the point where there is impeded access in east St. Thomas." Heavy rains from Sandy are falling in Haiti. A NOAA forecast based on microwave satellite data predicts 12 inches of rain for the tip of Haiti's southwestern Peninsula, which will likely cause life-threatening flash flooding. Fortunately, much lighter rainfall amounts are predicted for the capital of Port-au-Prince, where 350,000 people still live in the open under tarps in the wake of the January 2010 earthquake. In August, flooding from Hurricane Isaac killed at least 29 people in Haiti.
Near-term forecast for Sandy
Sandy doesn't have much time over water before it makes landfall on the southeastern coast of Cuba near 10 pm EDT this Wednesday night, and the strongest the storm is likely to be then is a 90 mph Category 1. Passage over the rugged terrain of Cuba should weaken Sandy's winds by 20 - 30 mph, and will likely destroy the hurricane's eyewall. It will be difficult for the storm to rebuild its eyewall and regain all of that lost strength, in the face of the high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots it will encounter Thursday and Friday. However, the loss of the eyewall will cause Sandy's radius of tropical storm-force winds to expand, spreading out the winds over a wider area of ocean, and increasing the storm surge threat. This large wind field will likely drive a storm surge of 5 - 8 feet in the Bahamas, which is more characteristic of a storm with winds 20 mph higher. I expect that Sandy will be a 65 - 70 mph tropical storm as it traverses the Bahamas, and the storm will make its closest pass by Nassau around 10 pm EDT Thursday.
Sandy: a potential billion-dollar storm for the mid-Atlantic, New England, and Canada
The latest set of 12Z (8 am EDT) model runs are in, and they portray an increased risk to the U.S. and Canadian East Coasts for early next week. The GFS model, which had been showing that Sandy would head to the northeast out to sea, now has changed its tune, and predicts that Sandy will double back and hit Maine on Tuesday evening. The ECMWF model, which has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy, now has the storm hitting Delaware on Monday afternoon. These models are predicting that Sandy will get caught up by the trough approaching the Eastern U.S., which will inject a large amount of energy into the storm, converting it to a powerful subtropical storm with a central pressure below 960 mb and sustained winds of 60 - 70 mph. Winds of this strength would likely cause massive power outages, as trees still in leaf take out power lines. Also of great concern are Sandy's rains. Given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, as predicted, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S. Another huge concern is storm surge flooding. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding.

There remains a lot of model uncertainty on where Sandy might go, and I still give a 30% chance that the storm will have a minimal impact on the U.S. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT on Thursday all across the U.S., which should help tomorrow evening's model runs make better forecasts of where Sandy might go. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.

Source: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2272

Sandy has the potential to bring significant impacts to the U.S. East Coast through the weekend and into early next week.
Let's break down the timeline for Sandy, starting with its Caribbean and Southeast U.S. impacts, then going into the potential serious threat the system poses to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

From early Thursday through Friday, Sandy will track from eastern Cuba to the Bahamas.
Other than potential hurricane-force winds in Jamaica, eastern Cuba and the Bahamas as the center passes through those locations, another major threat from Sandy will be heavy rain, flash flooding, and mudslides, generally to the north and east of the center's track.
This is particularly a concern over the higher terrain of Jamaica, eastern Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Heavy rain will also soak much of the Bahamas to the tune of 5-10" or more.
Since Sandy is expected to be a large system, it will also have impacts along the Southeast coast into Saturday.
Although Sandy's center is expected to remain well off the Southeast coast Friday into Saturday, it will bring peripheral effects.
The pressure gradient between Sandy and high pressure in the Northeast U.S. will lead to increasingly strong winds over the Florida Peninsula, spreading northward to the Outer Banks of North Carolina and Virginia Beach through at least Saturday
Rip currents, high surf, and, eventually, some coastal flooding are possible in areas of the most persistent onshore flow. Bands of rain on the outer periphery of the circulation will occasionally wrap into the coast, as well.
Wind gusts could reach 40 to 50 mph along Florida's eastern coast later Thursday into Friday.





As we head from late weekend into early next week, our focus turns to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast,where Sandy could be a serious threat.


Forecast guidance is indicating that the steering pattern for Sandy is setting up to be a potential major concern for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
A so-called "blocking pattern" in the upper levels of the atmosphere over the Atlantic appears to be strong enough that it will not allow the storm to turn east into the open Atlantic, but, rather, drive northward just off the East Coast.
Furthermore, the upper-level trough in the polar jet stream will provide an additional turbo-charged boost to this low, producing an intense, East Coast storm!

High winds, heavy rain, major coastal flooding and beach erosion could pummel portions of the Northeast seaboard early next week. Of course, the high winds would extend inland, with the potential for downed trees and powerlines.
This setup could even wrap in just enough cold air on its western edge to produce wet snow, possibly heavy, in some areas of the eastern Great Lakes and Appalachians! Eerily, this would take place around the one-year anniversary of the "Snowtober" snowstorm.

Residents of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic should remain vigilant and be prepared to take action in the next few days.
Details of exactly where the worst impacts will be felt are highly uncertain at this time.
We'll continue to refine our forecast here at weather.com and The Weather Channel. Check back with us often as this potentially major storm unfolds.

Source: http://www.weather.com/news/weather-hurricanes/tropics-scenarios-us-threat-20121022?pageno=1

Images:

It is probably coming on Monday or early Tuesday.

I hope you guys don't get hurt in any way.

Also if you have any questions to ask, then ask them here and I will try my best to help. c:

Owo Damn that sounds terrible

Nothing exciting like this goes on in the West Coast.......

Owo Damn that sounds terrible

Nothing exciting like this goes on in the West Coast.......

 

Where are you at? D8

 

Its terrible...yet interesting.

Where are you at? D8

 

Its terrible...yet interesting.

 

I live in Seattle

never in my life have I remembered something like a hurricane or earthquake .__.

BUt I do remember my 7-8th grade science teacher saying something about a little tornado

and it was in downtown and it wasn't even destructive

but kids were flying around and having fun 8D....

or maybe he was talking about someplace else and I didn't hear that part

I live in Seattle

never in my life have I remembered something like a hurricane or earthquake .__.

BUt I do remember my 7-8th grade science teacher saying something about a little tornado

and it was in downtown and it wasn't even destructive

but kids were flying around and having fun 8D....

or maybe he was talking about someplace else and I didn't hear that part

 

Didn't you just get a snowstorm?

Didn't you just get a snowstorm?

 

Define "just get"

I don't remember a snow storm

maybe early January or late 2011

but all we ever get is an occasional snowstorm like once to twice a year

I just realized this storm will be hitting the same day that the freakish 20 inch snowstorm hit last year

wonderful

Edited October 25, 201213 yr by Wolfgang

Well good thing I'll be safe at school.

I just realized this storm will be hitting the same day that the freakish 20 inch snowstorm hit last year

wonderful

 

I know right 8D

and we were supposed to get a freakish snowstorm on monday as well

but its going to be combined with Hurricane Sandy so it'll be even worse for us

 

Well good thing I'll be safe at school.

 

hey robby where do u live? /notastalker

 

we are having school apparently, but my english teacher said that i'll have to check the news to see if we are going to have a day off...or 2 days off

 

 

I know right 8D

and we were supposed to get a freakish snowstorm on monday as well

but its going to be combined with Hurricane Sandy so it'll be even worse for us

 

 

hey robby where do u live? /notastalker

 

we are having school apparently, but my english teacher said that i'll have to check the news to see if we are going to have a day off...or 2 days off

 

DON'T EVER CALL ME ROBBY AGAIN ._.

 

I live in New Jersey.

DON'T EVER CALL ME ROBBY AGAIN ._.

 

I live in New Jersey.

 

alright robby

ew NJ

 

 

NEW UPDATE:

 

Sandy is currently a Hurricane still, a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph wind.

I'm not sure if it's still intensifying but throughout the whole season meteorologists and hurricane experts can't actually find out if the hurricane is gonna intensify or not. They thought Sandy was gonna be a Tropical Storm, but it just became a Category 2 Hurricane.

Also this:

Edited October 25, 201213 yr by Shana09

 

alright robby

ew NJ

 

OOOOOOOOH SNAP

I KNEW that last winter was just the calm before the...STORM!

All the old folks tolds me about the wonderful winter of '69. Everyone remembers how good it was because of how bad the winter of '70 was. Snow to the top of street signs!!!!

 

Glad to be West again

 

yes

and

yes

 

and look at the new update ^

yep

time to pulls out the skis

Wunderground Blog:

 

 

Hurricane Sandy shrugged off wind shear of 20 knots and passage over the southeastern tip of Jamaica yesterday afternoon, explosively deepening into a top-end Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds. Sandy made landfall in Southeastern Cuba around 1 am EDT this morning near Santiago de Cuba, which experienced sustained winds of 78 mph, gusting to 114 mph. Winds at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba peaked at 58 mph, gusting to 72 mph, at 3 am local time this morning, and the base received 3.51" of rain from Sandy as of 8 am EDT this morning. Punta Lucrecia, Cuba on the north coast of Cuba received 8.42" of rain from Sandy as of 8 am EDT. Cuban state media is reporting that one person was killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with thousands of homes damaged or destroyed. Damage was alsosubstantial on Jamaica, where one person was killed, and power was knocked out for 70% of the island's residents. One death has been reported in Haiti due to flooding.

 

Sandy survived the crossing of Cuba's high mountains with its inner core relatively intact, and is now re-intensifying over the warm waters of the Central Bahama Islands. The latest 9:30 am center fix from the Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 965 mb, down 3 mb in 1.5 hours. The eye is intermittently visible on satellite loops, and Sandy appears to be holding its own against the high 30 knots of wind shear affecting it.

Forecast for Sandy

Wind shear is expected to rise to 40 - 55 knots by Friday, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should disrupt Sandy's inner core and reduce the maximum winds. However, the trough will also inject energy into Sandy, and the hurricane's winds will spread out over a wider area of ocean, keeping the storm surge threat high. This large wind field will likely drive a storm surge of 5 - 8 feet in the Bahamas. Sandy will make its closest pass by Nassau around 8 am EDT Friday.

 

The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs are in substantial agreement for the next 3 days, but Sandy's future is as clear as mud after that. Sandy will continue to punish the Bahamas today and Friday, as it tracks north to north-northwest. Sandy will probably come close enough to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday afternoon to spread heavy rains to the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. However, the 4 - 6 day computer model forecasts for Sunday - Tuesday diverge widely. The GFS model, which has been one of our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks the past two years, has been very inconsistent with its handling of Sandy. Runs of the GFS model done 6 hours apart, at 8 pm last night and 2 am EDT this morning, were 300 miles apart in their position for Sandy on Tuesday, with the latest run predicting a landfall in Maine on Wednesday morning. On the other hand, the ECMWF model, our other top model for predicting hurricane tracks, has been very consistent in its handling of Sandy. The ECMWF model has Sandy hitting Delaware on Monday afternoon, the same forecast it has had for three consecutive runs. The other models tend to follow one extreme or the other, and NHC is picking a solution somewhere in the middle of these two extremes. An extra set of balloon-borne radiosondes is going to be launched at 2 pm EDT Thursday all across the U.S., which should help this evening's model runs. Extra radiosondes will be launched every 6 hours through Saturday afternoon.

The Northeast U.S. scenario

If Sandy makes landfall farther to the north near Maine and Nova Scotia, heavy rains will be the main threat, since the cold waters will weaken the storm significantly before landfall. The trees have fewer leaves farther to the north, which will reduce the amount of tree damage and power failures compared to a more southerly track. However, given that ocean temperatures along the Northeast U.S. coast are about 5°F above average, there will be an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain. If the trough of low pressure approaching the East Coast taps into the large reservoir of cold air over Canada and pulls down a significant amount of Arctic air, the potential exists for the unusually moist air from Sandy to collide with this cold air from Canada and unleash the heaviest October rains ever recorded in the Northeast U.S., Nova Scotia, and New Brunswick. This Northeast U.S. scenario would probably cause damages near $100 million dollars.

 

The mid-Atlantic U.S. scenario

Landfall Monday along the mid-Atlantic coast on Monday, as predicted by the ECMWF and NOGAPS models, would likely be a billion-dollar disaster. In this scenario, Sandy would be able to bring sustained winds near hurricane force over a wide stretch of heavily populated coast, causing massive power outages, as trees still in leaf fall and take out power lines. Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 300 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be at their peak for the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fresh water flooding from heavy rains would also be a huge concern. Given the ECMWF's consistent handling of Sandy, I believe this mid-Atlantic scenario has a higher probability of occurring than the Northeast U.S. scenario. However, it is likely that the models are overdoing the strength of Sandy at landfall. The models have trouble handling the transition from tropical storm to extratropical storm in these type of situations, and I expect that the 940 mb central pressure of Sandy predicted at landfall Monday in Delaware by the ECMWF model is substantially overdone.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qnG85nI6TTU

Edited October 25, 201213 yr by Alan Smithee

 

hear with headphones, its recorded with a good camera and u can hear it if u literally pay attention.

 

It talkes about the hurricanes impacts.

 

Irene is not stronger than Sandy, Sandy will be a lot more dangerous.

 

Ill post another update soon

I just hope it doesn't turn or anything and hit North Carolina. Florence already played a little game with us when it left and then hit us when it was bigger. My science teacher calls it the ghetto hurricane.

I just hope it doesn't turn or anything and hit North Carolina. Florence already played a little game with us when it left and then hit us when it was bigger. My science teacher calls it the ghetto hurricane.

 

Actually, it's going to start affected you guys tomorrow or on Sunday.

We have two models telling us where its gonna make landfall, one says southern New Jersey and the other says Long Island.

 

Remember its a HUGE storm, so if it does make landfall or even gets skirts near the coast, you guys are gonna get affected either way. The only difference is the strength, if its stronger against u or not.

The Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast are gonna get the huge impacts, especially the NE.

well im screwed

Update:

 

Hurricane Sandy is holding its own against high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and has regained its Category 1 strength after falling to tropical storm strength early this morning. Sandy is a massive storm, with tropical storm-force winds that span a 660-mile diameter area of ocean from a point even with central Florida northwards to a point off the central North Carolina coast. Twelve-foot high seas cover a diameter of ocean 1,000 miles across. A buoy 150 miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida reported sustained winds of 63 mph, gusting to 76 mph, at 9:43 am EDT. Another buoy about 100 miles east of the coast of Georgia reported sustained winds of 69 mph at 11:52 am EDT. Due to the high wind shear and interaction with a trough of low pressure to Sandy's west, the storm has a rather unusual structure, with the strongest winds on the southwest side of the center, but a larger area of tropical storm-force winds to the northeast of the center.Satellite loops show that the low-level center of Sandy is partially exposed to view, with a small clump of heavy thunderstorms near the center. Most of the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is on the storm's west side, in a thick band several hundred miles removed from the center, giving Sandy more the appearance of a subtropical storm rather than a hurricane.

Sandy's death toll at 48

Sandy was a brutal storm for the Caribbean, with a total death toll that now stands at 48. The death toll is highest in Haiti, with 34 dead. The toll will likely rise as remote areas cut off from communications are reached. Cuban state media is reporting that eleven people were killed on Cuba, and damage was heavy, with 35,000 homes damaged or destroyed. Cuba is probably the most hurricane-prepared nation in the world, and it is unusual for them to experience such a high death toll in a hurricane. Sandy was Cuba's deadliest hurricane since Category 5 Hurricane Dennis killed sixteen people in 2005. Sandy is also being blamed for 1 death in Jamaica, 1 in the Bahamas, and 1 in Puerto Rico.

 

Forecast for Sandy

Wind shear is expected to remain a high 30 - 40 knots for the next two days, as Sandy interacts with a trough of low pressure to its west. The high shear should keep Sandy from intensifying the way most hurricanes do--by pulling heat energy out of the ocean. However, a trough of low pressure approaching from the west will inject "baroclinic" energy--the energy one can derive from the atmosphere when warm and cold air masses lie in close proximity to each other. Sandy's drop in central pressure from 969 mb at 5 am to 960 mb at 8 am this morning may be due, in part, to some baroclinic energy helping intensify the storm. This sort of effect helps spread out the storm's strong winds over a wider area of ocean; Sandy's diameter of tropical storm-force winds are predicted to expand from 660 miles to 760 miles by Sunday afternoon. This will increase the total amount of wind energy of the storm, keeping the storm surge threat very high. This morning's 9:30 am EDT H*Wind analysis from NOAA's Hurricane Research Division put the destructive potential of Sandy's winds at a modest 2.3 on a scale of 0 to 6, However, the destructive potential of the storm surge was exceptionally high: 5.2 on a scale of 0 to 6. Sandy's large wind field will drive a damaging storm surge of 3 - 6 feet to the right of where the center makes landfall. These storm surge heights will be among the highest ever recorded along the affected coasts, and will have the potential to cause billions of dollars in damage. The latest set of 00Z (8 pm EDT) and 06Z (2 am EDT) computer model runs have come into better agreement on the timing and landfall location of Sandy. Our two top models, the ECMWF and GFS, both call for landfall between 10 pm Monday night and 4 am Tuesday morning, with the center coming ashore between Delaware and New York City.

 

A multi-billion dollar disaster likely in the U.S.

I expect Sandy's impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast and New England coasts to cost at least $2 billion in insured damage and lost business, and there is a danger the storm could cost much more. Steve Bowen, meteorologist for insurance broker AON Benfield, put it this way for me this morning: "Given the level of losses associated with Irene last year and the current projections of extended high wind, heavy rainfall, coastal surge and an inland flooding threat for many of the same areas with Sandy, it would not come as a complete surprise to see a multi-billion dollar economic loss." Sandy should bring sustained winds of 50 - 70 mph with gusts over hurricane force to a large section of coast. With most of the trees still in leaf, there will be widespread power outages due to downed trees, and the potential for a billion dollars in wind damage.

 

Sandy's storm surge may flood New York City's subway system, costing billions

Sandy is expected to have tropical storm-force winds that extend out more than 400 miles from the center, which will drive a much larger storm surge than its peak winds would ordinarily suggest. The full moon is on Monday, which means astronomical tides will be among the highest of the month, increasing potential storm surge flooding. Fortunately, Sandy is now predicted to make a fairly rapid approach to the coast, meaning that the storm surge will not affect the coast for multiple high tide cycles. If Sandy hits near New York City, as the GFS model predicts, the storm surge will be capable of overtopping the flood walls in Manhattan, which are only five feet above mean sea level. On August 28, 2011, Tropical Storm Irene brought a storm surge of 4.13' to Battery Park on the south side of Manhattan. The waters poured over the flood walls into Lower Manhattan, but came 8 - 12" shy of being able to flood the New York City subway system. However, the town of Lindenhurst (population 28,000), on the south side of Long Island, was mostly under water due to the storm surge, and fresh water run-off from Irene's torrential rains, riding on top of a 3 to 4-foot storm surge, allowed the swollen East and Hudson Rivers to overflow at the edges of Manhattan. New York was not as lucky on December 12, 1992, when a 990 mb Nor'easter drove an 8-foot storm surge into Battery Park, flooding the NYC subway and the Port Authority Trans-Hudson Corporation (PATH) train systems in Hoboken New Jersey. FDR Drive in lower Manhattan was flooded with 4 feet of water, which stranded more than 50 cars and required scuba divers to rescue some of the drivers. Mass transit between New Jersey and New York was down for ten days, and the storm did hundreds of millions in damage to the city. The highest water level recorded at the Battery in the past century came in September 1960 during Hurricane Donna, which brought a storm surge of 8.36 feet to the Battery and flooded lower Manhattan to West and Cortland Streets. According to the latest storm surge forecast for NYC from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory, Sandy's storm surge may be higher than Irene's, and has the potential to flood New York City's subway system (Figure 4.) The amount of water will depend critically upon whether or not the peak storm surge arrives at high tide or not. If the peak surge arrives near Monday evening's high tide near 9 pm EDT, a portion of New York City's subway system could flood, resulting in billions of dollars in damage. I give a 20% chance that Sandy's storm surge will end up flooding a portion of the New York City subway system.

 

An excellent September 2012 article in the New York Times titled, "New York Is Lagging as Seas and Risks Rise, Critics Warn" quoted Dr. Klaus H. Jacob, a research scientist at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, on how lucky New York City got with Hurricane Irene. If the storm surge from Irene had been just one foot higher, "subway tunnels would have flooded, segments of the Franklin D. Roosevelt Drive and roads along the Hudson River would have turned into rivers, and sections of the commuter rail system would have been impassable or bereft of power," he said, and the subway tunnels under the Harlem and East Rivers would have been unusable for nearly a month, or longer, at an economic loss of about $55 billion. Dr. Jacob is an adviser to the city on climate change, and an author of the 2011 state study that laid out the flooding prospects. “We’ve been extremely lucky,” he said. “I’m disappointed that the political process hasn’t recognized that we’re playing Russian roulette.” A substantial portion of New York City's electrical system is underground in flood-prone areas. Consolidated Edison, the utility that supplies electricity to most of the city, estimates that adaptations like installing submersible switches and moving high-voltage transformers above ground level would cost at least $250 million. Lacking the means, it is making gradual adjustments, with about $24 million spent in flood zones since 2007. At a conference I attended this summer in Hoboken on natural hazards on urban coasts, I talked to an official with Consolidated Edison, who was responsible for turning off Lower Manhattan's power if a storm surge floods the subway system. He said that he was ready to throw the switch during Irene, but was glad it turned out not to be needed.

Sandy's rains

Sandy is expected to dump 5 - 10 inches of rain along the coast near the point the center comes ashore, and 3 - 4 inches several hundred miles inland. Higher isolated rainfall amounts of fifteen inches are likely. Rains of this magnitude are going to cause trouble. If we compare the predicted rainfall amounts for Sandy (Figure 4) with those from Hurricane Irene of 2011 (Figure 5), Sandy's are expected to be about 20% less. Hurricane Irene caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. However, the region most heavily impacted by Irene's heavy rains had very wet soils and very high river levels before Irene arrived, due to heavy rains that occurred in the weeks before the hurricane hit. That is not the case for Sandy; soil moisture is near average over most of the mid-Atlantic, and is in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland (Figure 6.) One region of possible concern is the Susquehanna River Valley in Eastern Pennsylvania, where soil moisture is in the 70th percentile, and river levels are in the 76th - 90th percentile. This area is currently expected to receive 2 - 4 inches of rain (Figure 4), which is not enough to cause catastrophic flooding like occurred for Hurricane Irene. However, it is quite possible that the axis of heaviest rains will shift northwards from this forecast. I expect that river flooding from Sandy will cause less than $1 billion in damage.

 

Links

To find out if you need to evacuate, please contact your local emergency management office. They will have the latest information. People living in New York City can find their evacuation zone here or use this map. FEMA has information on preparing for hurricanes. FEMA also has a blog describing their response to Irene.

 

Our Weather Historian, Christopher C. Burt, has an excellent post on Late Season Tropical Storms that have affected the U.S. north of Hatteras. He also has a post, Historic Hurricanes from New Jersey to New England.

 

Joe Romm at climateprogress.org has a thoughtful piece called, How Does Global Warming Make Hurricanes Like Irene More Destructive?

 

For those of you wanting to know your odds of receiving hurricane force or tropical storm force winds, I recommend theNHC wind probability product.

 

Wunderground has detailed storm surge maps for the U.S. coast.

 

The National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge RIsk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in, is a good source of storm surge risk information.

 

Research storm surge model run by SUNY Stonybrook for New York City.

 

Climate Central has a nice satellite image showing which parts of New York Harbor are below five feet in elevation.

Five-minute video of Hurricane Sandy on Thursday as seen from the International Space Station.

 

I'll probably leave this post up until late morning Sunday, unless there are some significant changes to report.

IRENE AND SANDY COMPARISON:

Figure 2. Storm surge from Tropical Storm Irene at The Battery on the south end of New York City's Manhattan Island on Sunday, August 28, 2011. The green line is the storm surge, which is the difference between the observed water level (red line) and what the water level should have been without the hurricane (blue line). At 4:48 am, the storm surge peaked at 4.13 feet. The storm tide--how high the water got when factoring in both the tide and the storm surge--peaked at 9.5' above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) at 8:42 am. Image credit: NOAA Tides and Currents.

Figure 3. Predicted storm surge for Hurricane Sandy at The Battery on the south shore of Manhattan, New York City, from the experimental Extratropical Storm Surge model, run by NOAA"s Meteorological Development Laboratory. This model used winds from this morning's run of the GFS model, and predicts that the peak storm surge from Sandy will reach 4.8' on Monday night October 29, which is 0.7' higher than Irene's storm surge. However, because this forecast has the peak surge occurring when the tide is going out, the maximum storm tide--the maximum water level reached as a result of the combined action of the tide and the storm surge--is expected to be 9.4', about the same as what Irene caused. Notice: this is not an official NHC storm surge forecast, and the storm surge may be higher or lower than this, depending upon the strength, track, and timing of Sandy.

 

Figure 4. Predicted 5-day rainfall for the period ending Thursday morning, November 1, 2012, at 8am EDT. Image credit:NOAA/HPC.

Figure 5. Actual rainfall for 2011's Hurricane Irene, which caused $15.8 billion in damage, most of it from river flooding due to heavy rains. Sandy's rains are predicted to be about 20% less than Irene's. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Figure 6. Top: Current soil moisture profiles over the mid-Atlantic show mostly near-average amounts of moisture, with some dry areas in the lowest 30th percentile in recorded history over much of Delaware and Southeastern Maryland. In contrast, soil moisture profiles just before Hurricane Irene arrived, on August 24, 2011 (bottom) ranked in the top 1% in recorded history (dark green colors) over portions of NJ, PA, and NY. Image credit: NOAA/CPC.

 

Figure 7. A comparison of river levels just before Hurricane Sandy's arrival (left) and just before Hurricane Irene of 2011 (right) shows that river levels were much higher in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast prior to the arrival of Irene. The area of highest concern for river flooding for Sandy is eastern Pennsylvania, where river levels are in the 76 - 90th percentile, and soil moisture is in the 70th percentile. Image credit: USGS.

 

 

Source: http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2277

 

Also check out the weather channel for videos and more~

 

Also Sandy stuff:

The reason it looks weird and not a normal hurricane, is because its transitioning into a hybrid storm. It looks more of a subtropical storm tho.

 

 

AS OF NOW, HURRICANE SANDY IS BADGERING SOUTH CAROLINA WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE. ITS MOSTLY GETTINGS 30 - 40 MPH WIND AS OF NOW.

 

 

ALSO SEE THIS BC OF PICTURE LIMIT: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL1812T_sm2+gif/153841P_sm.gif

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201218_model_intensity.gif

Edited October 27, 201213 yr by Shana09

Geeze lotsa flooding. I doubt my school will call a day off...they never do unless the earth is splitting at the seams (even though my high school is made up 2 trailers)....maybe I'll just take a personal day Monday O.o

 

Plus with the flooding, a good amount of roads might close near me...I have to cross a creek on my way to school.

Geeze lotsa flooding. I doubt my school will call a day off...they never do unless the earth is splitting at the seams (even though my high school is made up 2 trailers)....maybe I'll just take a personal day Monday O.o

 

Plus with the flooding, a good amount of roads might close near me...I have to cross a creek on my way to school.

 

Its starting to impact the NE from Sunday - Thursday.

Doubt it'll be there for just a day or 2.

It would be terrible if it went over the east coast then turned around in the Atlantic and decided to come back for the afterparty

It would be terrible if it went over the east coast then turned around in the Atlantic and decided to come back for the afterparty

 

LMAO yeah it would be.

It'd still be horrible, if it that it'd be even more terrible.